U.S. Futures & World Markets

Escalating strikes in the Middle East over the weekend initially pushed equity futures lower to start the week, but we're seeing a bit of a rebound on reports from Iranian media that mediators are proposing a 10-day cessation of strikes in order to find a way to revive the MoU. As you'd expect, oil has faded on the news.

The market still seems firmly convinced that the recent strikes from both Iran and the U.S. are more about gaining leverage ahead of negotiations than signaling a broader conflict. Investors are essentially betting that neither side can afford a major escalation. If cooler heads prevail and oil continues to drift lower, that would be a welcome tailwind for stocks.

Earnings take center stage again this week. It's early in earnings season, but the results have been stellar so far. Per Datatrek Research: 10% of S&P companies have thus far reported their Q2 results — 88% have beaten Wall Street analysts' consensus earnings estimates. That is well above the 1-, 5-, and 10-year averages of 80, 78, and 76 percent, respectively. We know estimates were optimistic, and so far companies have delivered. If this market is going to push meaningfully higher from here, those earnings beats will need to keep coming.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: +14.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.55%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

68% of S&P 500 components are above their 200-day MA and trending higher. Ryan Detrick: breadth is improving into earnings season — a constructive technical backdrop even as the headline index grinds sideways.

Zero signs of skittishness or capitulation among retail investors on Robinhood — five-session net single stock purchases have actually accelerated this week. Luke Kawa, Sherwood via Daily Chartbook: retail buy-the-dip behavior remains fully intact. The most consistent bull market support mechanism of 2026 shows no signs of breaking.

Momentum's reversal has not been limited to US large caps — the factor is struggling across size segments and global regions so far this month. S&P Global via Daily Chartbook: "The move reflects a broader rotation out of the AI-linked technology stocks that have led global markets for much of the year." The rotation is genuinely global, not just a US phenomenon.

High Beta Momentum is now -33% off ATHs — its biggest drawdown since the 2022 bear market. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: an extreme reading on an absolute basis that sets up the conditions for a potential mean-reversion rally in AI/semi names if earnings deliver.

While the drawdown is extreme on an absolute basis, it is in line with other routs this year on a vol-adjusted basis. Goldman Sachs: context matters — the current selloff is large but not unprecedented relative to how volatile these names have been all year.

Annuity sales have basically doubled since the Fed raised rates in 2022 and stayed at that higher level — creating strong institutional demand for both public and private credit. Torsten Slok, Apollo: a structural shift in how insurance capital flows through financial markets that is supporting credit even as equity volatility spikes.

Import prices for computers, peripherals and semiconductors jumped 14.9% YoY in June — computers and related hardware excluding semis rose 19.6%. Daily Chartbook: tariff pass-through into tech hardware is showing up in the data. Apple's Japan price increase is the consumer-facing manifestation of this trend.

The AI Doom basket closed at its highest levels since early February — while AI Picks & Shovels names are trending lower off a lower high booked in June. Bespoke via Daily Chartbook: the rotation from infrastructure plays toward AI adopters/beneficiaries continues apace. The "shovels" trade is giving way to the "miners" trade.

Data centers are actually helping reduce electricity costs to ratepayers — state-level electricity price increases are negatively correlated with increased demand. Moses Sternstein, a16z via Daily Chartbook: a counterintuitive but important finding that challenges the dominant narrative about AI's energy burden.

Bitcoin (-27%) and Gold (-7%) are the two worst performing major assets so far in 2026 — something we haven't seen before in any calendar year. Charlie Bilello: the flight-to-safety trade completely broke down in 2026 as capital poured into AI equities instead.

Gold's average 100-day return since 2010 has been +3.9% — but its recent volatility sits on the very outer edges of the statistical envelope. Nick Colas, DataTrek Research: a historically extreme drawdown in gold that sets up a potential mean-reversion as geopolitical risk remains elevated.

Bitcoin put/call ratio has fallen to a six-month low near 0.59 — traders are reducing downside hedges and rebuilding upside exposure. Glassnode via Daily Chartbook: a constructive shift in crypto sentiment as Bitcoin stabilizes around $64K.

Through July 10, operating companies have raised $140 billion in IPOs in 2026 — nearly matching 2021's full-year record of $141 billion in just over six months. Phil Mackintosh, Nasdaq via Daily Chartbook: the IPO window is wide open. Capital formation is running at historically unprecedented levels.

Long DXY positioning isn't yet crowded — there could still be dollar upside from here. TS Lombard via Daily Chartbook: dollar strength is a headwind for international earnings but a tailwind for US equity relative performance.

Six years after the pandemic, weekend NYC subway ridership has recovered to nearly 90% of 2019 levels while weekdays remain stuck near 75% — consistent with hybrid work becoming permanent. Torsten Slok, Apollo: a real-world data point confirming that the office hasn't fully come back, and may never fully do so.

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This content does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional expert advice. Everything published is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not assured. Past performance does not indicate future results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely those of the author as of the date indicated.