U.S. Futures & World Markets

Stocks are lower premarket as oil prices head back above $90 per barrel. Heightening tensions in the Middle East and the fading prospect of a deal with Iran have markets worried about energy supplies. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.32%, a 19-year high, while the 10-year is now at 4.73%.

Ed Yardeni, the veteran strategist who coined the term "bond vigilantes" in the 1980s, said investors are worried about the surge in borrowing by AI hyperscalers and are questioning the Fed's strategy on inflation. Still, he's not "pushing the panic button" quite yet.

With global interest rates up across the globe, it's no surprise that investors are pausing the push into risk assets near all-time highs. For today, oil and interest rates are driving the bus, and neither is giving investors much reason to step on the gas.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: -32.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.73%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

Nike stock at its lowest level since September 2014, down 78% from its 2021 all-time high — erasing over $200 billion in market cap. The Kobeissi Letter: a stunning destruction of shareholder value at one of the world's most recognized brands.

Since the start of 2025, the tech sector is up ~65%. In that time, the forward PE ratio has fallen from 29x to 22x. Ben Carlson: a remarkable fact — extraordinary earnings growth has made a soaring sector cheaper, not more expensive.

Hormuz vessel crossings back down to zero. @kevrgordon via Daily Chartbook: the interim agreement has already broken down in practice.

Hedge funds net bought US equities every day last week at the second fastest pace in the past year. Info Tech was by far the most net bought sector — long buys and short covers 2 to 1. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: institutional conviction in the tech recovery is building.

Asset managers and leveraged funds near-record net short Nasdaq-100 futures at -$20.2B — the second most negative reading in available history. HBR Research via Daily Chartbook: an extraordinary contrarian signal — a massive short squeeze could be setting up.

Nasdaq Composite is less than 2% from its all-time high. Since 1972, the Nasdaq has peaked for the year in June just once — in 1983. The question may not be if Nasdaq makes a new high, but when. @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: a historically powerful counterargument to the bears.

The strongest markets are not exciting — they quietly and persistently grind higher. Willie Delwiche, Hi Mount Research via Daily Chartbook: the current tape has that character.

Ten sectors expected to report earnings growth this quarter. Eight expected double-digit growth. S&P 500 expected to grow revenue by 15.4% — strongest since Q4 2021. Matt Cerminaro via Daily Chartbook: the breadth of earnings strength is remarkable.

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