Summer Friday,
Market Bounce

U.S. Futures & World Markets

Happy Soul Train Friday! https://mcore.hopp.to/youtube376

Stocks are set to bounce this morning after yesterday's selloff. The Nasdaq has closed lower for five straight sessions, so it's not surprising to see technology stocks catching a bid. AI headlines around financing deals and the growing backlash on data center construction have weighed on tech momentum. Expect lighter trading on this summer Friday with regular monthly options expiration today.

Retail and consumer discretionary stocks took it on the chin yesterday after Walmart issued weaker-than-expected profit guidance. Treasury yields and oil prices are stable this morning, which is helping risk assets. For now, the market is choosing to focus on earnings, rates, and the bigger picture.

CORE Headlines

• China planning new fiscal support measures. — Bloomberg
• Iranian oil available to Chinese refiners is rapidly declining amid the U.S. blockade. — Bloomberg
• Iran threatened a "devastating response" after the U.S. pledged to impose more economic sanctions. — Reuters
• JPMorgan layoffs reached their highest level since 2015. — Barron's
• College enrollments expected to drop 13% by 2041. — WSJ
• An Amazon drone dropped a package into a swimming pool in Texas. — NYP
• Walmart reported its smallest sales gain in more than six years. — WSJ
• Starbucks will lay off more than 200 corporate staff two years into its turnaround effort. — WSJ
• Tesla to recall 2 million vehicles made in China. — CB
• An army unit offers re-enlisting soldiers four days off to play Grand Theft Auto VI. — NBC

Charts & Data

The positive correlation between oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield continues to strengthen — close to taking out the 2020 high. The longer this persists, the more of a pinch we see on the consumer spending side of growth. @kevrgordon via Daily Chartbook: the oil-rates linkage is becoming the market's defining macro constraint.

Private investors now hold 73% of the Treasury market versus roughly 50% a decade ago. With the market relying more on price-sensitive buyers, the yield premium will likely be higher versus history. Barclays via Daily Chartbook: a structural shift that explains why yields are staying elevated.

Commodities — and gold in particular — have historically performed well when the dollar trades below its long-term average. Turning Point Research via Daily Chartbook: a framework for thinking about the commodity trade in the current environment.

An elevated net 16% of fund managers consider gold to be undervalued. BofA via Daily Chartbook: professional investors are more bullish on gold than the price action suggests.

Silver soaring as Bessent doubles down on buybacks — the debasement trade is back. @robin_j_brooks via Daily Chartbook: silver is the most volatile expression of the debasement thesis.

Bitcoin demand turned positive in both spot and perpetual futures for the first time since the October 2025 ATH. If this holds for another month, it would be reasonable to conclude a new bull cycle has begun. @ki_young_ju via Daily Chartbook: a potentially significant regime change signal for crypto.

Bitcoin above its 200-DMA for the first time in over a year. Only the 3rd time BTC has spent 6+ months below it — in prior 2 cases, it never again fell below the signal price over the next year. @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: a historically powerful technical signal for crypto bulls.

Stocks now dominate household wealth. The equity wealth effect is a much bigger force in the US business cycle and a key driver of consumer spending. BCA Research via Daily Chartbook: when stocks are near all-time highs, the American consumer feels rich — and spends accordingly.

Mutual funds did not carry heavy exposure to AI stocks as of Q2 — the NVDA underweight is "off the charts." Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: a massive potential buying force if mutual funds play catch-up to the AI trade.

78.8% of 28 global equity markets show positive short-term breadth — stocks above their 50-day moving average. @wallstcourier via Daily Chartbook: the bull market is a genuinely global phenomenon, not just a US story.

Interesting Reads

• Harvard Scientists are rethinking this forgotten human movement: it can burn more energy, build whole-body strength, and challenge the brain — Every Day Health
• This Day In History: Hawaii becomes the 50th state — History

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