U.S. Futures & World Markets

S&P futures are slightly lower this morning, but tech stocks continue to get pounded with Nasdaq down almost 1% premarket. Semiconductor stocks got hit yesterday, with South Korea's KOSPI down 36% from its June peak, and fears of intensifying AI competition from China are adding fuel to the fire.

The month-to-date numbers are brutal: WDC -22%, MU -22%, INTC -34%, MRVL -36%, SNDK -43%. Deleveraging is the story as the unwind in momentum stocks goes full-throttle. The good news? Market breadth remains solid — but that may be more about investors de-risking into defensive sectors than a longer-term shift.

The Fed meeting this week. The AI spending debate. Crude prices. It reminds of the old line from John McClane in Die Hard — "Welcome to the party, pal!"

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: -14.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.62%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

History shows hot IPOs rarely deliver — SpaceX may be unique, but the pattern of euphoric debut followed by a painful reality check is not. Peter Mallouk: "A reminder for investors not to chase hot IPOs."

Oil trading more than 50% above Deutsche Bank's estimate of medium-term fair value — outside the 2022 shock peak, the market has rarely looked this stretched. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: significant room for a pullback if conditions normalize.

S&P struggles when 10-year yields rise more than ~50bp in a month — equities would face real pressure if yields move toward 5%. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: the yield threshold to watch for the next leg of equity pain.

Discretionary investors cut exposure back to early-April lows. Systematic strategies still at the 70th percentile — vulnerable if volatility picks up. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: a split market where systematic sellers could amplify any downturn.

~53% of S&P 500 will be in buyback open window by end of next week — one of the market's largest buyers returning. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: a meaningful technical tailwind re-entering at an opportune moment.

Retail appetite for AI stocks has waned sharply — 5-session demand at just 8% of one-year peaks, down from 36% on July 2. Sherwood via Daily Chartbook: even the most consistent buyers have stepped back from the AI trade.

All SOX components under their 50-day moving average for the first time since April 23, 2025. WSJ via Daily Chartbook: a technically damaged picture for the semi sector.

Market breadth divergence: 26 trading days in 2026 where S&P closed negative but breadth was positive — the most on record since at least 1999. And this one favors the bulls. @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: the most encouraging internal market signal of the current correction.

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