U.S. Futures & World Markets

Risk-on is back, as another round of strong corporate earnings keeps fueling the rally. Renewed momentum in technology stocks and a possible deal on the Strait of Hormuz have the bulls firmly back in control. Lower oil prices are also helping, pulling Treasury yields lower and easing inflation concerns — for now.

On the earnings front, Eli Lilly is +5% premarket after beating estimates, while Disney is +3% after a solid report. SpaceX is down -10% as surging capex spending spooked investors. AMD is also under pressure, down 8% after reporting, although expectations had become almost impossible to meet with the stock up 142% year-to-date heading into earnings.

Torsten Slok of Apollo explains why new Fed Chair Warsh is right to eliminate forward guidance: it stops policy inertia, ends false certainty, and restores real market signals. Flexibility is more valuable than a false sense of security — anyone remember "transitory inflation" and what happened in 2021 and 2022?

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: +22.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.61%

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Charts & Data

Today, the S&P set a new all-time high after going 42 days since the last one — and broke it by more than 1.5%. That's only happened 4 times ever. Has it been bullish? Duh. @oddstats via Daily Chartbook: one of the strongest confirmation signals for the bull market.

Whenever S&P made 25+ all-time highs by end of August, the full year was positive 100% of the time with a 20% average gain. @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: a historically compelling setup for the rest of 2026.

First time semis and software pulled the market higher together all year — SOXX and IGV outperforming the S&P by 2% in a single session for the first time since April 24, 2025. @_joshschafer via Daily Chartbook: a potentially significant breadth signal for the tech sector.

Brent futures suggest oil will still be elevated 6 and 12 months hence — but at levels not wildly above what was expected a year ago. Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook: the market is pricing in elevated but manageable oil, not a permanent crisis.

Treasury bill issuance relative to the deficit now over 50% — a significant liquidity impulse historically supportive for stocks. Forward S&P returns in similar setups have been "almost double the average." Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook: a powerful technical tailwind that most investors are ignoring.

By end of next week, ~75% of S&P 500 by weight will be eligible to repurchase shares — rising to nearly 85% by mid-August. Corporate demand set to reaccelerate precisely as positioning has become materially cleaner. Scott Rubner, Citadel via Daily Chartbook: the structural bid returning at the best possible time.

Dow Jones at all-time highs — above a rising 50-day and 200-day moving average. Fresh all-time highs are bullish. Investors often overthink them. Grant Hawkridge via Daily Chartbook: a clean technical confirmation of the bull market's continued health.

Profit margin expansion is not just a Tech story — 10 out of 11 sectors are experiencing margin expansion. SocGen via Daily Chartbook: the broadest corporate margin expansion of the cycle.

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