U.S. Futures & World Markets

I'll keep it brief today — I'm heading out on vacation for a few days and I'm sure you'll survive without my morning commentary. https://mcore.hopp.to/youtube373

Equity futures are mixed premarket, with S&P mostly flat and tech slightly lower. The Strait of Hormuz interim agreement is the dominant story — markets are watching to see if it holds and whether the 60-day window leads to something more durable. Oil has retreated from its highs on the news, which is the market's preferred outcome.

Earnings season is largely behind us and the results have been outstanding by any historical measure. The question now is what comes next — whether the momentum from a strong Q2 carries into Q3, or whether rising rates and persistent geopolitical uncertainty create a more challenging tape in the weeks ahead.

Have a great rest of the week. I'll be back soon.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: ~flat  |  10-Year Yield: 4.61%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

S&P earnings season scorecard: 91% of the index has now reported, with a blended EPS growth rate of 49.2% — on pace to be the strongest quarter since Q4 2021. FactSet: the bar was high, and companies cleared it decisively.

The Hormuz deal removes the single biggest oil-market risk premium of 2026. Brent could revisit the $65-70 range if the 60-day window holds. Bloomberg: a disinflationary tailwind that could give the Fed more room to maneuver.

S&P 500 is now up approximately 15% YTD. If it finishes the year above 7530, it would mark four consecutive years of double-digit returns — only happened once before in history (1995-1999). Goldman Sachs: the most remarkable bull market statistic of 2026.

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