U.S. Futures & World Markets
Markets remain stalled, albeit near all-time highs, as investors await more clarity on US-Iran negotiations and a big slate of mega-cap tech earnings. The tape remains resilient ahead of a busy week of catalysts, and it's no surprise we've seen muted trading action so far. Higher oil isn't helping matters, though.
On the earnings front, Coca-Cola beat estimates (+2.7% premarket), while Corning is lower (-10.7%) after beating numbers but guiding Q2 inline. Spotify is under pressure, down 12.1% on in-line revenue guidance.
On Wednesday, the big focus shifts to tech — Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft report, followed by Apple after the close on Thursday.
"Coming into today, the Nasdaq is on track for a monthly gain of around 15% while the S&P 500 is up over 9% this month, on track for its second best April since 1950."
Roberts & RyanInterest Rates & The Fed
"Fed Funds Futures now give majority odds to no rate cuts this year. Incoming Chair Warsh may want lower rates, but it will take time to convince the rest of the FOMC that they are needed. The recent strength of the US economy and a robust Q1 corporate earnings season, both surprising given high oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty, certainly argues for a go-slow approach to rate cuts."
Datatrek ResearchFor now, markets are holding firm — but with valuations elevated and expectations high, the next move will come down to whether earnings and macro data can keep delivering. It would also help to see oil prices drift lower rather than push higher.
CORE Headlines
- A U.S. official says President Trump is not satisfied with Iran's proposal to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz because it delays nuclear negotiations to a later date.
- Iran is trying to find more ways to store oil, hoping to avoid a damaging production shutdown as the U.S. blockade stops its exports.
- OpenAI missed its own user and revenue targets.
- Foreign automakers might pull the least expensive vehicles from U.S. market if USMCA trade deal is not extended.
- Google signed a classified AI deal with the Defense Department.
- UPS beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY26 revs in-line.
- OpenAI and Microsoft reached a deal that allows OpenAI greater freedom within their partnership.
- Verizon reported higher growth in new-customer numbers and lower churn in its first full quarter under CEO Dan Schulman.
- Paramount is seeking FCC approval for Persian Gulf sovereign-wealth funds to take a substantial equity stake as part of its $81 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery.
- FedEx is preparing to return its MD-11 cargo jets to service next month, allowing it to cut back on expensive leased planes.
Charts & Data
Wage growth is picking up. From Torsten Slok of Apollo: Wage growth is beginning to accelerate, particularly among job switchers. This suggests a tightening labor market, likely driven by AI tailwinds, the One Big Beautiful Bill, and a sharp slowdown in immigration.
Semiconductors: overbought or just getting started? The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has put in a parabolic move. From @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: "Semiconductors are now at one of the most overbought levels in history. $SOX RSI is over 85 and has only occurred in 1995, 2011, and now. Overbought alone isn't a sell signal, but parabolic moves like this tend to get undercut. Chasing such moves has seldom been rewarded."
The oil trade is fading. USO, the biggest US ETF tracking crude oil, is on pace for its steepest monthly outflow since 2009, per Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook.
Risk appetite diverging from price. From Thrasher Analytics: "Risk Appetite fell last week, declining by 6 points, diverging from the strength in the S&P 500."
Equity positioning constructive but not stretched. From Deutsche Bank: "Consolidated equity positioning has risen to the 53rd percentile, entering modest overweight territory while leaving room for further upside. The backdrop remains constructive."
Mega-cap tech: long but not stretched. Deutsche Bank notes mega-cap tech positioning is long but still far from extreme levels historically.
Nasdaq momentum. From @bluekurtic: "For the first time in 17 years, the Nasdaq 100 is up 4 consecutive weeks with gains exceeding 18%. This kind of momentum is usually bullish — 1 month later, the index was higher in 6 of 7 cases, with a median gain of 8.5%."
Corporate buybacks accelerating. Deutsche Bank notes US companies are stepping up share buyback announcements — a sign of balance sheet strength and a constructive signal for investors.
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