U.S. Futures & World Markets

Stocks are a bit lower premarket as we await April CPI data at 8:30 AM ET. The big question is whether higher energy prices have kept consumer prices elevated. Inflation remains the primary concern.

The S&P and Nasdaq both hit fresh record highs as the AI and semiconductor trade continue showing strength. The market has shrugged off the latest negative headlines surrounding Iran, even after CNN reported that President Trump is considering a resumption of major combat operations.

There is a real push-and-pull on technology stocks at current levels. Bears think this rally is overheating, while bulls argue it's time to party like it's 1998. The vertical move in technology stocks has left most other sectors in the dust, and the frenzy in call option buying has only added fuel to the upside move. The question now is whether the bulls are ready to take profits, or if this melt-up has room to run.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: -25.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.43%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

Equity positioning rising but not elevated. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: "Equity positioning has climbed swiftly to a 3-month high but is still not elevated (0.31sd, 60th percentile). Systematic strategies continued to grind higher while discretionary investors had another go at breaking out of the cautious range of the last 15 months." Still room to run before positioning becomes a headwind.

Hedge funds buying Consumer, selling Energy. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: "Hedge funds modestly net bought Consumer Discretionary stocks for the first time in 9 weeks — a potentially positive turn in sentiment on Consumer names." At the same time, net selling in US Energy was the largest since April 2025, ranking in the 97th percentile on a 5-year lookback.

Software: short covering, not real buying. JPMorgan via Daily Chartbook: "Software was among the most bought industries over the past 5 days. So far it's been short covering led. Net exposure in software is still greater than negative 4 standard deviations and has not even kept up with the recent price bounce." Real money hasn't returned to software yet.

Retail call buying at meme-stock levels. Mandy Xu, Cboe via Daily Chartbook: "We've seen a sharp uptick in call buying activity from retail investors, with over 52% of all retail opening activity in 10 mega-cap tech stocks consisting of call buying — the highest since the COVID meme stock era." Contra-indicator worth watching.

Only 53% of S&P stocks above their 200-DMA at record highs — a dot-com parallel. Bespoke via Daily Chartbook: "Historically, there have been an average of 77% of stocks above their 200-DMAs when the S&P has been at record highs, compared to just 53.2% now. The only precedent for this came towards the end of the 1990s dot-com bubble." Breadth is the story to watch.

Six-week win streaks have never marked a peak. Bespoke via Daily Chartbook: "The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 now all have winning streaks of at least six weeks. What immediately stands out is that none of these prior streaks marked a medium-to-long-term peak for the S&P 500."

Momentum stocks at 4-year relative high. Grant Hawkridge via Daily Chartbook: "Momentum stocks just hit their highest relative level versus the S&P 500 in more than four years." The trend is your friend — until it isn't.

Six-week Momentum move is unprecedented. S&P Global via Daily Chartbook: "Just how unusual has the rip upwards been in Momentum? In a word: unprecedented. The S&P 500 Momentum index has never clocked a six-week performance as large as the current +30.5% across both live and hypothetical history back to 1972."

Today's Nasdaq moves are nothing like 1999/2000. Mark Wilson, Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: "The percentage return moves today are child's play versus 1999/2000." Despite the euphoria, the volatility profile is far more contained than the actual dot-com bubble.

Earnings are blowing through estimates in unprecedented fashion. John Authers, Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook: "Earnings seasons almost always see companies exceed their forecasts, because they have themselves had a hand in setting them. But the way the S&P 500 is blowing through its estimates for Q1 is different."

S&P up 4x the typical earnings season pace. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: "During earnings season, the S&P 500 typically rallies, posting a median gain of 2% over the first four weeks. This time, the index is up nearly four times that pace. That's definitely not a normal earnings season."

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This content does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional expert advice. Everything published is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not assured. Past performance does not indicate future results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely those of the author as of the date indicated.