U.S. Futures & World Markets

Stocks are flat premarket as investors take a breather after a strong run higher. Headlines about an overnight exchange of missile and drone attacks between the US and Iran haven't deterred bullish investors — the market continues to look past the geopolitical noise. The consensus view remains that some sort of deal will be reached in the next few days, though stocks appear content to pause until there is more clarity.

Corporate earnings remain strong, and last night's numbers didn't disappoint. Marvell crushed it, even against the backdrop of massively elevated expectations. Salesforce had good numbers, but worries about software getting displaced by AI continue to put pressure on the stock. Snowflake, on the other hand, is +30% premarket after a massive earnings beat.

At 8:30 AM ET, we receive PCE inflation data — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A "cooler" number could help extend the market rally. A "hotter" reading would move interest rates higher and put pressure on stocks. Inflation fears and the future path of Fed interest rate policy remain the key drivers of where markets go from here.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: -6.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.50%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

S&P at 95th percentile rich vs. Treasuries over 50-year lookback. Simon White, Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook: "The S&P is over one standard deviation rich versus Treasuries on a year-on-year basis, at its 95th percentile over the entire 50-year lookback period. The ratio is mean-reverting — risk-reward favors Treasuries outperforming stocks." The valuation gap between stocks and bonds is as wide as it's been in a generation.

Household cash buffers still large — equity inflow runway remains. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: "Equity inflows are drawing support from the large cash buffers households built up during the pandemic, with a significant pool of savings still sitting on the sidelines." The incremental buyer exists — they just haven't all arrived yet.

Large-cap ETF inflows for third straight week; small caps seeing outflows. Arbor Data via Daily Chartbook: "Largest ETF inflows for the week ended 5/22/26 in US large caps for the third consecutive week. US small caps had the largest outflows." The concentration trade continues.

ETF flows "very lukewarm" — room for redeployment. Todd Sohn, Strategas via Daily Chartbook: "I found this surprising — this would say there is room for capital to be redeployed. Very lukewarm." Despite recent inflows, the pace remains below what you'd expect given the strong tape.

Nasdaq downside protection getting cheaper — complacency rising. Michael Cembalest, JPMorgan via Daily Chartbook: "Investor complacency is rising as illustrated by the declining price for downside protection on the Nasdaq." Cheap puts are a feature, not a bug — but complacency is worth noting.

Goldman Speculative Trading Indicator well below prior cycle highs. Ben Snider, Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: "Speculative sentiment today appears far less extreme than at the ends of past overextended markets. Despite the sharp recent rally, measures of froth including our Speculative Trading Indicator remain well below prior highs." Not in bubble territory by this measure.

Only 33.8% of S&P stocks at new 52-week highs — index strength masking weakness. Andrew Thrasher, Thrasher Analytics via Daily Chartbook: "The S&P 500 is up more than twice the typical amount with just 33.8% of stocks having hit a 52-week high since the March 30th bottom. This shows yet another example of the index strength not being fully recognized by most large-cap stocks." Breadth remains the biggest structural concern.

S&P +8% in first 100 days — historically positive for full year 100% of the time. @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: "100 trading days into 2026 and the S&P 500 is up over 8%. When the S&P gained 8%+ in its first 100 days, it was positive 21 of 24 times for the rest of the year with a 11.5% median gain, and positive 100% of the time for the full year."

Tech win streak historically leads to gains 95% of the time over 6 months. Dean Christians, Turning Point Market Research via Daily Chartbook: "Extended win streaks like the one we're seeing now have historically led the S&P 500 technology sector to add gains over the next six months in 95% of cases."

Earnings growth has powered the entire YTD return — Goldman expects this to continue. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: "Earnings growth has powered the entire S&P 500 return so far this year, and we expect this dynamic will continue in the coming months."

Semi rally has overshot near-term EPS revisions. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: "The recent rally in semiconductors has overshot near-term EPS revisions." This is the key tension in the sector — the price action is pricing in perfection while the fundamental revisions haven't kept pace.

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This content does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional expert advice. Everything published is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not assured. Past performance does not indicate future results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely those of the author as of the date indicated.