U.S. Futures & World Markets

US stocks are set to open higher this morning as tech stocks look to extend the rebound following Friday's bloodbath. Crude oil is down 2% on reports the Strait of Hormuz could open this week. The bulls are back in charge, at least for another day.

Tomorrow kicks off another round of inflation data with CPI, followed by PPI on Thursday. The 10-year yield remains stuck in no-man's land at 4.55% — not high enough to put meaningful pressure on stocks, but not low enough to eliminate inflation fears either.

Datatrek Research summed up the earnings backdrop well:

"US corporate profitability is moving from strength to strength across many parts of the S&P 500, not just in Tech and Tech-adjacent sectors. This is an important fact, as net margins are a key component in return on shareholder capital and therefore valuations. This goes a long way to explaining why the S&P 500 is comfortably holding a 20x–21x valuation, even in the face of continued geopolitical and AI-related uncertainty."

Datatrek Research

It seems like investors may be paying up to own stocks — but corporate America keeps giving them a reason to do so.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: +34.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.55%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

S&P 500 earnings expected to increase 25% this year — never seen outside post-recessionary rebounds. Charlie Bilello: "An unprecedented boom fueled by massive EPS gains in big tech." The earnings story remains the bedrock of the bull case.

2027 EPS estimates continue soaring. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: the direction of forward estimate revisions remains stubbornly upward, which is the single most important leading indicator for equity performance.

US large-cap tech recently outperformed S&P by +6 standard deviations over 50 days — no prior analog since 2015. Datatrek Research: "Prudent traders should acknowledge that we are in uncharted waters and size positions accordingly. We remain long-term bulls on Tech." Uncharted doesn't mean wrong — but it does mean careful.

Mega-cap growth and tech positioning at 97th percentile — crowded and fragile. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: "A crowded overweight trade that looks fragile as tailwinds fade. That leaves little margin for disappointment." The most important risk management data point in the market right now.

Friday saw the highest put option volume EVER recorded in both QQQ and SPY. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: "Investors rushed to hedge downside risk as volatility surged and the selloff accelerated." A one-day hedging panic that now creates potential for a relief squeeze.

Retail investors' share of total equity market volume above 20% — approaching peak-2021 levels. Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook: the democratization of speculation continues, with retail now a primary price-setter in individual names.

Hedge funds net buying software, staying long semis at 5-year highs. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: net allocation to Software rising off February lows; Semis exposure hovering near 5-year highs. The semi-to-software rotation that many expected hasn't fully materialized yet.

Dip buyers have been rewarded: 11 of 13 times SPY was higher 4 days after a 2% down day in this bull market. @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: "Buy the dip! Since the start of the bull market, the median gain 4 days later was 1.2%." History favors the buyers.

Even great years have bad days — average worst day in a 20%+ year is -3.5%. Ryan Detrick: "In fact, there was a day in 1997 it fell nearly 7% and still gained more than 30% for the year." Context matters more than any single session.

The Friday selloff was 100% an AI story — non-AI S&P unchanged. Bianco Research via Daily Chartbook: "The S&P 500 was down 2.6% on Friday, June 5th — its biggest daily loss since last October. The S&P 500 without AI was up 0.02%. The 'normal world' did nothing on Friday." This market is a single-factor trade at its core.

NY Fed: household short-term inflation expectations decreased; medium- and longer-term unchanged. NY Fed via Daily Chartbook: a modest sign that consumers aren't extrapolating the energy shock into their longer-run inflation views. The Fed will watch this closely.

Crypto funds saw sustained outflows for a month — Bitcoin vehicles accounting for bulk of selling. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: investors stepping back from the crypto space as capital rotates into AI-adjacent equities and IPO preparation.

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