U.S. Futures & World Markets

Technology stocks are leading S&P futures higher premarket after Micron announced blowout earnings. The AI trade is back in full force — MU +16%, SOX +5%, and Mag 7 names are relatively flat. A chart below on dispersion within the tech sector makes sense looking at today's price action.

JPMorgan's desk had an interesting take on yesterday's session: "Yesterday's session is giving us a feeling that the market is returning to price action seen in Jan–Feb, beginning with a squeeze as investors de-risk around AI/Tech as they prepared for MU earnings. The decline in energy prices, specifically, and commodity prices generally is giving hope of the 'immaculate disinflation' sought in 2022; this is manifesting in consumer-related plays seeing significant outperformance."

Today's PCE report will give investors another important data point on that front. If disinflation is becoming a reality, it could broaden this rally beyond AI and tech and finally give some of the lagging sectors a chance to join the party.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: +72.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.42%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

US households sitting on $3.2 trillion of cash. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: an enormous pool of sideline capital that could still be deployed into equities. The bull case for incremental buyers remains intact.

Top wealth decile's equity-vs-real-estate imbalance back to dot-com levels. Steven Blitz, TS Lombard via Daily Chartbook: "Real estate and equities are the two most important assets on household balance sheets — and the imbalance towards equities is back to dot-com levels for the groups above the 90th percentile in net worth." A concentration risk in household portfolios that mirrors the index concentration story.

Oil's relationship with rates has inverted: lower oil = more demand = higher inflation. Torsten Slok, Apollo via Daily Chartbook: "The narrative in markets is changing from 'lower oil prices mean lower inflation' to 'lower oil prices mean more demand in an already overheating economy, which means higher inflation.' This breakdown in the correlation between rates and oil prices can be seen in the chart." A counterintuitive but important macro dynamic.

Brent targeting $75 and falling fast — heading for $3 at the pump. Robin J Brooks via Daily Chartbook: "My target for Brent was $85 in a peace deal. We're now $75 and falling fast. Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic is normalizing rapidly and the narrative is shifting back to 'global oil markets are oversupplied' in a hurry. We're heading for $3 at the pump..." Disinflationary tailwind building.

Semiconductor ETF trading volume up to ~$42 billion per day. Todd Sohn, Strategas via Daily Chartbook: "Up to about $42bn traded per day in Semiconductor ETFs. They are clearly at the center of the AI movement." When an ETF trades $42B per day, it's no longer just an investment vehicle — it's a price-setter.

Hedge fund momentum exposure at the 98th percentile on a 5-year lookback. John Flood, Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: "Exposure to Medium-Term Momentum remains near record highs." The crowded momentum trade has plenty of room to unwind if sentiment shifts.

Both breadth AND Mag 7 leadership declining — not much for bulls to hold onto. Andrew Thrasher, Thrasher Analytics via Daily Chartbook: "Now we have both breadth AND the theme leadership declining. That doesn't leave much for the bulls to grasp onto to propel stocks higher if we don't have broad market breadth improving or the Mag 7 leading SPX higher." The most concerning technical setup of the recent chop.

S&P has never peaked for the year in June — the only month with a perfect 0-for record. Ryan Detrick via Daily Chartbook: "Given the most recent ATH was on June 2, could this year be the first? I say no." Seasonality says July is coming, and July has been up 100% of the time over the last 10 years.

A rate hike in and of itself is not a bull market killer. Ned Davis Research via Daily Chartbook: as the prospect of a Fed rate hike becomes increasingly real, historical precedent says stocks can still advance from here. The rate path matters more than the direction of any single move.

Dispersion widening within tech: semis and comms equipment decoupling from software and IT services. S&P Global via Daily Chartbook: "As AI adoption continues to surge, industries like Communications Equipment and Semiconductors are showing strong relative performance, effectively decoupling from Software and IT Services." This explains today's price action perfectly — Micron surges while software lags.

AI hyperscalers issued 47% more debt in first 5 months of 2026 than all of 2025 — $159B vs $108B. WSJ via Daily Chartbook: "Their YTD debt issuance exceeds the combined issuance from 2020–2024." The scale of AI infrastructure financing is without modern precedent.

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This content does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional expert advice. Everything published is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not assured. Past performance does not indicate future results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely those of the author as of the date indicated.