U.S. Futures & World Markets

Semiconductor stocks are catching a bid this morning as tech stocks mount a charge after the recent selloff. Apple's $30 billion partnership with Broadcom to develop custom chips helped sentiment, and excitement surrounding Friday's IPO of South Korea's SK Hynix is adding more fuel to the AI fire. According to the WSJ: "The stock got a late 5% boost in Asian trading following reports that its U.S. listing is more than seven times oversubscribed. For context, SpaceX's IPO was around three or four times oversubscribed."

Markets are shaking off the latest Iran headlines, pricing in the TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) and de-escalation of tensions. We'll see if that optimism lasts. Keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield — if it starts creeping toward 4.75%, it could pressure stocks.

On the economic front, we'll get Jobless Claims data at 8:30 am ET. Also, the US Treasury is selling $22 billion worth of 30-year notes because, apparently, the national credit card still has plenty of room left on it.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: +13.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.58%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

When oil and yields stop moving together, it signals the Fed's problem has shifted from headline to core. Torsten Slok, Apollo: "Cheaper oil alone won't open the door to cuts, and the Fed is likely to stay on hold until it sees core inflation convincingly cooling."

S&P returns by who's running the government — a good chart with mid-terms coming up. Clearnomics: a useful historical framework heading into the political calendar.

VIX is under its long-run average of 20.50. Clearnomics: a good reminder that despite recent volatility, the market fear gauge remains contained.

Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index at one of its most accommodative levels in years. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: "A friendly setup for borrowing, fund-raising and broader risk appetite."

Median short interest across Russell 3000 names surged to multi-year highs. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: "Crowded shorts have a habit of turning into aggressive buying."

Momentum factor exposure has come down meaningfully from peak levels — now in the 60th percentile on a 1-year lookback. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: the positioning reset from the extremes is constructive for the next leg.

When the S&P is up between 5% and 10% YTD at the midpoint of the year, the second half tends to do quite well — higher nearly 88% of the time. Ryan Detrick, Carson Group via Daily Chartbook: a historically strong seasonal setup for H2.

Nasdaq 100 has whipsawed 1%+ moves in either direction for 7 straight days. When NDX is within 10% of an ATH, 6 months later the median gain has been 15%, up in 11 of 12 cases. @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: history strongly favors the bulls from this setup.

Q2 GDPNow ticked down to 1.3% from 1.4%. Augur Infinity via Daily Chartbook: still tracking positive growth, though well below the Q1 pace.

AI-exposed job postings fell most from 2022 to 2026 — but over the past year, most AI-exposed occupations have seen the largest rebound in postings. Indeed via Daily Chartbook: the labor market impact of AI is more nuanced than the headlines suggest.

US bond market in a drawdown for 71 months — by far the longest in history. Charlie Bilello via Daily Chartbook: a sobering reminder that the pain in fixed income has been historically unprecedented.

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