U.S. Futures & World Markets

Stocks are flat premarket as trading volumes begin to thin out ahead of the long holiday weekend. Software stocks are catching a bid after Snowflake jumped on earnings, offering another sign that the beaten-up sector may finally be finding some footing. A little more stability in oil and bond markets would also go a long way toward helping equities.

Momentum stocks continue to get hit as the build-up from the first half of the year continues to unwind. Broadcom is lower as investors fret the bull case has gotten more complicated. That's what happens when expectations get sky-high — good news is no longer enough, and anything less than perfection suddenly becomes a problem.

One comment on politics: Don't let politics get in the way of investing. That said, here's JPMorgan's read on the midterms: on average, the sitting President's party has lost ~27 House seats and ~3 Senate seats over the last 23 midterm cycles. If that trend holds, Dems will take the House and the GOP will hold the Senate. Betting markets see a 53% chance the GOP holds the Senate and an 85% chance Dems take the House. The economy and affordability screen as the most important issue, complicated by an unpopular conflict with Iran.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: flat  |  10-Year Yield: 4.78%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

The global bond sell-off is ongoing since 2022 — it isn't new. It won't spin into a crisis because governments won't let it. Low Swiss yields show this is all about the level of debt, not a loss of confidence in any specific country. Robin J. Brooks via Daily Chartbook: a calming macro framework for the bond market anxiety.

Correlation between the 10-year yield and oil is the highest since the GFC. @marcomadness2 via Daily Chartbook: the oil-rates linkage is the most important macro relationship of 2026.

CTAs are very net short bonds at the 5th percentile since 2012 — that positioning has likely fallen further. The continued bond selloff is doing nothing but put CTA cover triggers further away. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: systematic sellers are adding fuel to the bond fire.

Hyperscalers issued ~$320B in debt in 2026 so far — they may be causing a supply-demand issue at the long end of the yield curve. JPMorgan via Daily Chartbook: a structural driver of higher long rates that isn't going away.

Bitcoin ETFs saw ~$3.5B of inflows in August — the biggest monthly inflow in more than a year. Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook: crypto is attracting institutional flows as the debasement trade gains momentum.

SPX has now posted 25 consecutive trading days without a 1% decline — a streak sitting around the 90th percentile. VIX vs. SPX: "This is extreme complacency." Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook: the volatility setup is unusual heading into a seasonally weak period.

Interesting Reads

Want this in your inbox every morning?

Morning Core subscribers get this analysis two days before it's published here — plus charts, data, and Nick's unfiltered take on the markets. It's free.

Subscribe to Morning Core — Free
This content does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional expert advice. Everything published is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not assured. Past performance does not indicate future results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely those of the author as of the date indicated.