U.S. Futures & World Markets

Middle East hostilities have oil trading higher, and that's putting pressure on stocks to start the week. Anthropic's Dario Amodei published an essay over the weekend calling for a slowdown in AI development. This is putting pressure on semiconductor stocks.

Goldman's Privo on the AI trade: "While today's session will be challenging, the structural trend remains intact: the underlying technology continues to advance, and a weekend of safety-related headlines is unlikely to derail hyperscaler capex plans. The bigger bear case is that the industry learns to produce more intelligence with less compute and competition destroys the economics before it destroys the technology. I don't think we are there yet."

The market is pricing in an almost 90% chance of a rate hike at next week's FOMC. Without clear guidance from Warsh, the market is left to actually do its job — price risk accordingly.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: -63.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.97%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

University of Michigan preliminary sentiment fell to 47.8 in September from 51.7. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.6% over the next year — up from 4% prior month. Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook.

Consumer sentiment among Republicans is now tumbling, erasing most of the gains made since Trump's election victory at end of 2024. Joe Weisenthal, Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook.

Core CPI rose 0.29% in August — 3.5% annualized. The 3-month annualized rate was 2%. The 6-month annualized rate rose to 2.6% from 2.4%. @nicktimiraos via Daily Chartbook.

The rise in long-term yields is a debt shock, not a growth shock. Robin J. Brooks, Shadow Price Macro via Daily Chartbook.

For most of the last three years, rising oil prices weren't a major drag on equities. That changed following the bombing of Iran — the correlation between stocks and crude turned negative in March and has remained there since. @_rob_anderson via Daily Chartbook.

There have been 37 sessions this year where the S&P fell 0.5% or more. Robinhood traders net purchased single stocks on all but two of those days. Luke Kawa, Sherwood via Daily Chartbook.

Across all stocks, the 10th percentile correlation with semis is the most negative in 35 years. 3Fourteen Research via Daily Chartbook.

NYSE McClellan A/D Oscillator got down to -175 — lowest since the March price lows. This may be all we get to mark the September seasonal low. @mcclellanosc via Daily Chartbook.

MarketDesk's composite of technical breadth measures points to an oversold S&P and suggests a bounce is likely. MarketDesk via Daily Chartbook.

69% of S&P 500 companies now point to a live AI deployment, up from 64% last quarter. But only 29% put a number on a result, and just 2% report a metric tracked over time. Torsten Slok, Apollo via Daily Chartbook.

Interesting Reads

Want this in your inbox every morning?

Morning Core subscribers get this analysis two days before it's published here — plus charts, data, and Nick's unfiltered take on the markets. It's free.

Subscribe to Morning Core — Free
This content does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional expert advice. Everything published is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not assured. Past performance does not indicate future results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely those of the author as of the date indicated.