U.S. Futures & World Markets

Happy Soul Train Thursday! https://mcore.hopp.to/youtube383 Nick is out of the office tomorrow.

Stocks are catching a bid premarket after yesterday's 25bps rate hike from the Fed. While Warsh raised rates, he reiterated a high degree of confidence in the continued strength of the US economy.

DataTrek Research on Warsh's most substantive comments — explaining why 10-year yields have been moving higher: (1) the US economy remains strong; (2) there is now more competition for capital, especially from AI hyperscalers issuing long-term corporate debt to fund data center buildouts; (3) geopolitics — the US/Iran war and resultant oil price spikes — is having many knock-on inflationary effects. Warsh may be the first Fed Chair to cite "crack spreads" at a press conference podium.

Bottom line: markets like certainty, and investors seem comfortable with the idea the economy can withstand two rate hikes. Keep an eye on oil prices — Warsh mentioned "geopolitics" multiple times. That will impact the Fed's urgency for further hikes. For now, the market seems happy with what it heard.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: +90.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.97%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

FOMC voted unanimously to raise the target range by 25bps to 3.75-4%. The dot plot moved slightly higher — median shows just one more hike this year and none in 2027. Federal Reserve via Daily Chartbook.

For the first time since the Summary of Economic Projections started being published, there are zero members who see downside risks to GDP growth. @kevrgordon via Daily Chartbook: unanimous Fed optimism on the economy.

Total retail sales increased 1.2% month-over-month and 6.0% year-over-year. The increase was broad-based — 12 of 13 categories posted stronger spending. Tuan Nguyen, RSM via Daily Chartbook.

Q3 GDPNow tracking toward 5.1% annualized — if it comes to fruition, the best quarter since Q4 2021. @lizthomasstrat via Daily Chartbook.

Mortgage purchase applications remain depressed and the refinance index historically low. NAHB Housing Market Index fell to a 1-year low in September. Daily Chartbook.

JPMorgan clients aggressively added to short bond positions — the all-client survey shows the least amount of net longs in about four months. Edward Bolingbroke, Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook.

Discretionary positioning is still well behind earnings growth, leaving stocks room to keep climbing. More cash is likely to flow into equities. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook.

Investors have poured more than $1.4 trillion into US-listed ETFs so far this year — a record. Model-based projections point to a full-year total near $2.3 trillion. Goldman via Daily Chartbook.

AI theme rotation: long-window winners turning into short-window losers, while AI Software remains positive across both horizons. Goldman via Daily Chartbook.

Software sits at the top of Goldman's projected momentum buys; Semiconductors and Equipment at the bottom. Software can move from short covering into fresh momentum demand just as semis move from long reduction into systematic selling. Goldman via Daily Chartbook.

Three key open-weight AI labs have seen monthly dollars spent on their models grow 10x or more so far in 2026. @openrouter via Daily Chartbook.

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