U.S. Futures & World Markets

Oil is higher, interest rates are higher, and stocks are set to open lower. That's the entire story in a nutshell. Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal, though talks are continuing. 10-year yields sit at their highest since 2007.

Bullish case: persistent labor shortages, massive AI capex, and profitable mega-cap tech are supporting the economy. Bearish case: higher deficits and the huge borrowing needs of hyperscalers. Either way, the Fed isn't making the mistake of waiting too long. Higher oil + higher rates = a tougher road for stocks. Let's see if the bulls can keep shrugging it off.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: -42.00  |  10-Year Yield: 5.22%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

When the S&P is up between 10-20% YTD heading into Q4, Q4 has been higher 18 of 21 times with above-average returns. @ryandetrick via Daily Chartbook.

Classic stealth correction: equal-weighted S&P down just over 5% from the August 13 peak while the headline index has barely moved. Breadth dropped from the high-70s% to just below 50% on the 200-DMA measure. Callum Thomas via Daily Chartbook.

Investors have been raising cash at a similar pace to prior major corrections — potentially a healthy reset ahead of a Q4 rally. @MacroCharts via @RyanDetrick via Daily Chartbook.

Nobody hiding in Staples or Utilities. Consumer Staples and Utilities not attracting defensive flows — a sign the market isn't actually pricing a recession. JC Parets, TrendLabs via Daily Chartbook.

Hyperscaler valuations have de-rated to the lowest level in 10 years. Goldman via Daily Chartbook.

Hormuz oil flow at ~13.5 MMbpd — by far the biggest rise coming from Saudi Arabia's new Gulf loadings blitz. @rory_johnston via Daily Chartbook.

Over the past 30 years, the S&P 500 has averaged a trailing 4-quarter EPS growth rate of 7%. The current rate is 26%. Ben Snider, Goldman via Daily Chartbook.

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This content does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional expert advice. Everything published is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not assured. Past performance does not indicate future results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely those of the author as of the date indicated.