U.S. Futures & World Markets
I'm traveling for work this morning with spotty in-flight internet access, so I'll keep this a bit shorter than usual. You have to love American Airlines!
The AI trade is catching a bounce after solid earnings from SpaceX after the bell last night — SPCX is +8% in premarket trading. Strong earnings from SMCI (+10% premarket) are also helping support semiconductor stocks. As for yesterday, nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher despite continued weakness among several influential mega-cap names. Today is a busy one on the earnings front, with Tesla, Meta, and IBM all reporting after the close. Earnings!
CORE Headlines
- Netanyahu pushed to resume strikes on Iran this month, but Trump was opposed to restarting attacks prior to the midterm elections. — FT
- White House envoy Steve Witkoff will meet Putin to discuss an updated Ukraine peace proposal. — Axios
- Oil exports through the Persian Gulf have surpassed pre-war levels amid US protection of shipping lanes. — WSJ
- Russia released Stephen Hubbard, an American held for four years. — CNN
- Larry Ellison increased borrowing to help his son bid for Warner Brothers. — WSJ
- Anthropic disclosed an $80.7B net loss for the first half of 2026 in its draft prospectus, along with a long list of risk factors including uncertain access to computing power. — WSJ
- SpaceX reported $14.6B in Q3 revenue, up 161% from a year ago, supercharged by its AI segment. — WSJ
- Amazon launched a hiring drive with plans to bring on more than 300,000 workers for the holiday season. — WSJ
- The UK approved development of a major new gas field in the North Sea. — CNN
Charts & Data
Torsten Slok on the AI data center buildout delay: winners include owners of operating data centers, hyperscalers with capacity already secured, and holders of powered land. Losers include hyperscalers' growth and earnings, AI labs and startups, and equity investors in the AI trade priced for on-time delivery. Apollo via Daily Chartbook.
US Pending Home Sales collapsed -7.3% in September — the lowest level on record in data going back to 2001. The West saw the steepest decline of -9.2%. The housing market is frozen. The Kobeissi Letter via Daily Chartbook.
US housing market sales just hit the lowest level ever. The NAR's pending sales index fell to 66.0 — 50% lower than the pandemic peak, 35% lower than 2019 levels, and lower than any period during 2008-09. Nick Gerli via Daily Chartbook.
The average net worth of US households is $1.2M. The median is $216K. But when you remove home equity, the median is just $69K. Nick Maggiuilli via Daily Chartbook.
Only 8% of global equity indices are trading above their 50-day moving average. Does the overly pessimistic sentiment signal a bottom? MacroMicro via Daily Chartbook.
Interesting Reads
- Prediction markets are now 'bespoke insurance' for businesses — a LA restaurant group's $60,000 hedge on Kalshi is the latest example — Fortune
- China's rare earth strategy and the future of the South China Sea — The Diplomat
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