U.S. Futures & World Markets

Stocks are modestly higher premarket as investors comb through the latest batch of earnings. Coke beat estimates and raised guidance but is flat premarket after a strong run this year. Boeing is +1% after reporting its total order backlog hit a new record high. UPS is +2% after beating estimates and raising guidance. Sherwin-Williams is down 4% after missing numbers.

Anthropic finally unveiled its S-1 prospectus, and it's a doozy — 300 pages explaining how the company can do just about everything under the sun as long as it doesn't cause "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity." The IPO on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT will serve as a referendum on whether public market investors are sold on the visionary zeal with which Dario Amodei's AI lab has wooed private backers. Investors will have to swallow a complex governance structure that gives ordinary shareholders almost no power, as well as extraordinary financial and societal risks. AI may be changing the world, but it hasn't changed what makes for a good investment: earnings, valuation, and the price you pay.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: +21.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.98%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

Over the last month, Treasury yields have become increasingly correlated with Nasdaq performance, while displaying a negative correlation with Brent prices. Despite a resilient economy, equity markets are likely in the driver's seat for rates valuations. Jay Barry, JPMorgan via Daily Chartbook.

Overall equity positioning has now fallen to neutral (41st percentile). Discretionary investors at their lowest in over a month (18th percentile). Systematic strategies still overweight but falling from elevated levels (79th percentile). Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook.

Mega-cap growth and tech positioning has cooled from its highs, returning to neutral at the 33rd percentile. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook.

US equities net sold for a 3rd straight week, driven mainly by long-and-short sales in single stocks — the largest de-grossing activity since late July. Robbie Stankard, Goldman via Daily Chartbook.

NDX 3-month implied correlation has jumped to roughly 0.33 from the high-0.20s. The dispersion trade is being forced shut — exactly what a de-gross looks like. Brian Garrett, Goldman via Daily Chartbook.

Demand for tail risk protection, as measured by SPX downside convexity (10D vs. 25D ratio), remained in the 99th percentile high, though off the extremes from a week ago. Mandy Xu, Cboe via Daily Chartbook.

CTAs are long around $50B of global equities, of which $36B (72%) is SPX. We anticipate CTAs will sell ~$11.5B of SPX as a base case this week while short-term trend remains negative. Robbie Stankard, Goldman via Daily Chartbook.

Retail trading volumes have declined ~20% since mid-summer and more than 40% since late 2025 — currently registering 9% of total US equity volumes, down from 15% late last year and close to the lowest since 2020. Goldman via Daily Chartbook.

~27% of the S&P 500 index is currently in open buyback window, with that number almost doubling to ~50% by the end of the week. Robbie Stankard, Goldman via Daily Chartbook.

Since 2022, traders have steadily built bearish bets on US stocks. If momentum flips, those positions could quickly become fuel for a rally. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook.

Only 37.8% of S&P 500 companies are outperforming the index on a year-over-year basis. Ed Yardeni via Daily Chartbook.

S&P 500 forward earnings per share rose to a record $414.41 during the week of October 22. Forward earnings for the S&P 400 and S&P 600 are also at record highs. Ed Yardeni via Daily Chartbook.

Tech certainly has the best margin story of any S&P 500 sector, but most groups are doing very well relative to the recent past. The index's aggregate profitability is currently excellent — a function of widespread improvements in profitability, not just Tech. Nick Colas, DataTrek via Daily Chartbook.

The earnings rollover everyone keeps projecting may once again get pushed further out. Duality Research via Daily Chartbook.

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