U.S. Futures & World Markets

It's good to see equity futures flat premarket, even as negotiations between the US and Iran have stalled. The market is looking through higher oil prices for now, and is focusing on the big week ahead for tech earnings — five of the Mag 7 report: AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, and META.

We've gotten a nice bounce off the recent lows, but the next phase of this rally will need to see mega-cap names take the leadership again. This theme has remained strong even with higher oil prices. Just look at semiconductor stocks to see what's happening.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: Flat  |  10-Year Yield: 4.31%

Fundamentals are back in focus with plenty of non-tech companies reporting this week. From Roberts & Ryan: other big names include energy majors Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips; consumer giants Coca-Cola, Starbucks, and Chipotle; payments names Visa and Mastercard; and healthcare giants Eli Lilly, Merck, AbbVie, and Amgen.

The macro backdrop remains resilient, supported by the strength of household and corporate balance sheets. Investors remain willing to look past higher energy prices in the near-term, IF earnings hold up. We'll find out this week if the optimism is warranted.

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

Equity ETF inflows at record pace. From The Kobeissi Letter: average daily US equity ETF inflows surged to a record +$7.5 billion in the first 3 weeks of April — up 153% compared to the March average of +$2.9 billion. Total US equity ETF inflows have exceeded +$100 billion since the March 30th bottom. Investors are pouring more capital into equity funds than ever.

A historic earnings boom is developing. From 3Fourteen Research via Daily Chartbook: EPS revisions are growing faster than they did in the mid-90s or the late internet bubble years. Only the COVID recovery period saw a greater inflection — and uniquely, this boom is not coming off an EPS drawdown.

Q1 earnings strong so far. With 28% of the S&P 500 reported, the blended EPS growth rate for Q1 is 15.1% — which would mark the 6th consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year growth. The blended sales growth rate is 10.3%, which would be the strongest YoY growth since Q3 2022.

Beat rate impressive. 84% of companies have delivered higher-than-expected EPS — above the 5- and 10-year averages. In aggregate, companies are reporting EPS that are 12.3% above estimates.

M&A activity driven by mega-deals. From Torsten Slok of Apollo: aggregate M&A volume figures are misleading — a handful of blockbuster deals are dominating headline numbers. Goldman adds that Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets predicts "pure M&A volume" could hit $3.8 trillion in 2026, driven by AI and increased selling of portfolio companies by private equity firms.

Tech buybacks accelerating. From JPMorgan via Daily Chartbook: while big tech players like Meta are cutting headcount, they continue to buy back their stock aggressively to boost earnings.

Data center opposition unlikely to derail IPOs. From TS Lombard via Daily Chartbook: surging data center hostility is unlikely to derail any of 2026's three buzzy IPOs — SpaceX, Anthropic, or OpenAI. Voter fury and the Iran war may yet prove constructive for new solutions to the US energy bottleneck.

"During the late 1990s Tech bubble, future growth expectations peaked at 66%. If the AI trade can spur the same sort of enthusiasm, the S&P 500 has +20% to +50% upside from here."

Nick Colas — DataTrek Research

"Yes, the worst six months are coming up soon (May–October). But these six months have been lower only once the past decade, and last year was the greatest 'Sell in May' return ever (+22.8%). We are expecting another strong return this year."

Ryan Detrick via Daily Chartbook

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