U.S. Futures & World Markets

Stocks are higher premarket as the market looks to extend its march to new all-time highs. Cisco reported stellar numbers and is +15%, helping support the advance in mega-cap tech and semiconductor stocks. Peers are lifting alongside it — MRVL, HPE, and ANET all higher this morning.

AI excitement remains front and center with the highly anticipated IPO of Cerebras (CBRS) today. The deal was priced well above the initial range — at $185 versus the deal range of $150–$160 — another sign that investor appetite for anything tied to AI infrastructure remains strong.

On the geopolitical front, there were no surprises from the US-China summit, but investors were happy to hear that China agrees the Strait of Hormuz should remain a free and open waterway. Crude remains over $100 per barrel, so let's see if we get a fade in oil prices. Nvidia is +2% premarket on China optimism and the announcement that the US approved H200 chip sales to ten Chinese firms.

The market continues to reward anything tied to AI, semiconductors, and infrastructure spending, while investors remain willing to look past geopolitical risks. Momentum is clearly still in control, but with sentiment running hot and stocks sitting at record highs, the bigger question is how much good news is already priced in.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: +27.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.44%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

The only time the S&P gained more in a 6-week period was QE1. ZeroHedge: the S&P's 6-week performance is rivaled only by the period immediately following the Fed's launch of quantitative easing after the global financial crisis. Context matters.

Hard to be bearish with 19% EPS growth on deck. Eduardo Lage, JPMorgan: "Hard to be bearish on the S&P 500 when consensus calls for 19% and 16% EPS growth in 2026/27." The earnings story is the backbone of this bull market.

Don't mix politics with investments. Peter Mallouk citing Warren Buffett: "If you mix politics with your investment decisions, you're making a big mistake." A timely reminder given how vociferous the political conversation has become.

Home prices flat-lined but on trend. Bespoke: "Home prices from Realtor's national median listing price reading have flat-lined since peaking nearly four years ago in July 2022. If you draw a pre-COVID trendline, though, we're basically right on trend. Post-COVID pull forward." The housing market isn't broken — it just borrowed from the future.

Mortgage demand: purchase apps up, refi down. Haver Analytics via Daily Chartbook: applications for loans to purchase rose while refi applications declined. Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans unchanged at 6.64%.

Higher for longer continues. Torsten Slok, Apollo: "The parallels with the energy shocks of the 1970s are worrying. The last mile of fighting inflation is a marathon rather than a sprint. Combined with ongoing fiscal challenges, there are a lot of upward pressures on rates across the curve."

10-year crossing back above 4.5% — historically stocks still rose. Odd Stats via Daily Chartbook: "Since 1970, this is only the third time that the 10-year has been below 4.5% for at least 200 trading days before going back above it. The last two times it happened, the stock market kept going up. Never bet on anything with a historical population of 2."

Global oil inventories burning at record pace. JPMorgan via Daily Chartbook: "The world has burned through oil inventories at a record speed as the Iran conflict shows no end in sight. The rapidly shrinking stockpiles mean the risk of further price spikes and shortages is getting ever-closer."

Nasdaq positioning spiked — not a sell signal, but juice is squeezed. Macro Charts via Daily Chartbook: "Nasdaq positioning has spiked again. Crowded positioning is not a Sell signal, but it strongly suggests most of the juice in NDX has been squeezed, maybe for a while."

Hedge funds sold semis on the way up. Vincent Lin, Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: "Amid the SOX's +59% rally since end of March, US semis & semi equipment stocks have been meaningfully net sold by hedge funds — driven mainly by long sales." The smart money sold the news.

SMH overbought for 22 straight days — a new record. @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: "For the first time ever, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF has stayed overbought for 22 straight days. The previous record was 16 days, set in 2025."

Breadth diverging at record pace. Bespoke via Daily Chartbook: "Tuesday's divergence marked the 28th time this year that price and breadth moved in opposite directions. If that pace continues, this year's total would spike up to 77, far eclipsing the records of the prior two years."

NYSE new lows exceeded new highs for first time in 27 sessions. Grant Hawkridge via Daily Chartbook: "The index still looks strong but underneath the surface, something just changed. One red breadth reading is normal — but this becomes a bigger issue if the red bars start stacking up from here."

The March correction was a valuation reset, not a peak. JPMorgan via Daily Chartbook: "The S&P 500 decline was less than 10% on a price basis, but a significant reset on valuations and breadth took place — the more important adjustment."

Tech P/E down to 23.6 from peak above 30 — not a bubble. Phil Rosen: "Talking about an AI bubble doesn't make sense when tech stocks are actually getting cheaper. The forward 12-month P/E for the S&P 500 tech sector now sits at 23.6, down from its peak above 30 last fall."

High school alcohol consumption down from 92% to 47% since 1970s. Family Studies via Frank Luntz: alcohol went from a near-universal rite among high schoolers 50 years ago to fewer than half of them today. Many theories for this shift.

Interesting Reads

Want this in your inbox every morning?

Morning Core subscribers get this analysis two days before it's published here — plus charts, data, and Nick's unfiltered take on the markets. It's free.

Subscribe to Morning Core — Free
This content does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional expert advice. Everything published is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not assured. Past performance does not indicate future results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely those of the author as of the date indicated.