U.S. Futures & World Markets

S&P futures are mostly flat this morning, as investors take a breather to assess the AI-trade and US-Iran negotiations. Lower oil prices and falling Treasury yields have helped support the latest move higher — the 10-year yield dropped from 4.67% to 4.43% in the last two weeks, a meaningful tailwind for risk assets.

The momentum tape remains firmly intact, with tech and semiconductor stocks driving the market to fresh all-time highs. While some investors have questioned valuations, earnings growth has largely supported the rally.

Markets can stay more optimistic than most investors expect. The cost to protect your portfolio remains unusually cheap right now — investors are more interested in chasing stocks to the upside than hedging downside risk. That feedback loop keeps pushing stocks to new all-time highs. Trend continues to point higher until proven otherwise.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: -6.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.44%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

AI will create more jobs, not fewer — Jevons paradox. Torsten Slok, Apollo: "The cost of doing a PET scan has declined 70%, and as a result, many more of them are being carried out. As the number of scans has increased, employment and salaries for radiologists have increased. As AI makes many processes cheaper in finance, consulting, and legal services, Jevons paradox suggests we should expect more demand and more jobs in those sectors, not fewer."

Q2 GDP tracking fell to 3.0%. Augur Infinity via Daily Chartbook: the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q2 GDP growth dropped to 3.0% from 3.8% on May 28. Worth watching — still solid, but the downward trend needs to stabilize.

The Iran war has cost US households $100 billion — about $750 per household. Mark Zandi via Daily Chartbook: "$100 billion. That's our estimate of the cost of the Iran War to American households. This includes additional US military costs and higher energy and other prices resulting from the war."

Money market assets hit a record $8.281 trillion. Alex Harris, Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook: "Investors added $66 billion to money market funds in the week ending May 28, pushing total assets to a record $8.281 trillion." An enormous pool of potential equity inflows on the sidelines.

Bull market checklist: weight of evidence remains bullish — breadth thrust still missing. Grant Hawkridge via Daily Chartbook: "The S&P 500 just closed at another fresh all-time high. Risk appetite hit its highest level since July 2023. Global participation improved. Internals pushed higher. Momentum strengthened. The Breadth Thrust is still missing. But the weight of the evidence remains bullish."

Goldman Panic Index at a 2-year low. Robbie Stankard, Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: "Goldman's Panic Index closed last week at a ~2-year low." Complacency is high.

Large-cap tech positioning at 95th percentile — vulnerable if catalysts dry up. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: "Positioning in large-cap Tech is now at the top of its historical band (95th percentile) and therefore vulnerable if positive catalysts dry up."

Hedge fund momentum exposure at record all-time highs — 50% above 2021 peak. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: "Exposure to 'momentum' within our global Prime book is at record all-time highs, 50% greater than the prior highs set in 2021."

Nobody wants protection — SPX puts at cheapest levels in years. The Market Ear: "Nobody wants protection. SPX puts are now trading at relatively cheap levels despite one of the most speculative rallies in years." Insurance is cheapest when everyone thinks they don't need it.

Financials at 5-year lows in hedge fund positioning — 1st percentile. Robbie Stankard, Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: "Gross and net allocations in Financials are still essentially at their respective 5-year lows, in the 1st percentile." The most under-owned major sector.

S&P's reaction to Middle East conflict: from weakest to strongest. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: "The S&P 500's reaction to the Middle East conflict has shifted from one of the weakest after a geopolitical shock to one of the strongest, as investors priced in a lower risk of major disruption."

Tech: back-to-back 10%+ monthly gains — only the 6th time since 1990. Bespoke via Daily Chartbook: "April and May was the third strongest two-month gain for Tech since 1990 and just the sixth time the sector has seen back-to-back monthly gains of more than 10%."

June is the only month that has never been the annual high for the S&P. Ryan Detrick via Daily Chartbook: "As we head into June with the S&P 500 at the highest level it has ever traded, just remember this is the only month to never see the ultimate peak for the year."

S&P forward earnings at a record — $339 for 2026, $395 for 2027. Yardeni Research via Daily Chartbook: "The latest analysts' consensus has S&P 500 operating EPS at $339.24 for 2026 and $394.52 for 2027." If those numbers hold, the bull case stays intact.

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This content does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional expert advice. Everything published is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not assured. Past performance does not indicate future results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely those of the author as of the date indicated.