U.S. Futures & World Markets

Stocks are set to open lower as higher interest rates put pressure on equities. The big question is whether stock volatility plays catch-up higher or if interest rates slide lower.

Leon Cooperman's famous quote from the late '90s still rings true: "You don't want to live in a world where the Fed cannot get whatever result it wants."

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: -42.00  |  10-Year Yield: 5.14%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

US business output growing at the fastest rate in over five years in September. Chris Williamson, S&P Global via Daily Chartbook.

But input cost inflation surged — hitting the highest since October 2022. S&P Global via Daily Chartbook: the growth/inflation tension is intensifying.

National diesel prices at $6.52/gal — US preparing a potential 90-day diesel export ban. @kevrgordon via Daily Chartbook.

Diesel is embedded in the delivered cost of nearly every physical good. The rise in diesel prices migrates into core goods and services with a lag — exactly the kind of pass-through the Fed cannot dismiss as transitory. Torsten Slok, Apollo.

Investor allocations to bonds have drifted to the lowest level since immediately prior to the Global Financial Crisis. @callum_thomas via Daily Chartbook.

Discretionary investors still positioned cautiously relative to the strength of earnings growth — more cash could move into stocks. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook.

AI compute costs falling ~47%/quarter since 2023 — 4x faster than DNA sequencing, 6x faster than compute, 18x faster than lithium batteries. Epoch AI via Daily Chartbook.

S&P 500 cumulative A/D line dropped more than 1,500 points from its peak while the index itself was down barely 2%. Prior periods with similar breadth deterioration saw little negative forward return impact. Bespoke via Daily Chartbook.

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This content does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional expert advice. Everything published is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not assured. Past performance does not indicate future results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely those of the author as of the date indicated.