U.S. Futures & World Markets

Equity futures are slightly lower to start the morning. It has been an eventful week so far, and it's only Wednesday — Trump/Xi meeting, UN speeches, and US/Iran talks all in motion.

IONQ is +12% after demonstrating the industry's first end-to-end real-time quantum error correction decoder running on a standard CPU. Microsoft is +1% after an upgrade from Stifel. And most importantly, Cracker Barrel is +8% after beating earnings estimates and raising 2027 guidance. I know the Cracker Barrel I pass on the way to the PA Turnpike is ALWAYS crowded. Maybe Cracker Barrel is the gateway drug to Golden Corral.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: -6.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.98%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

Bear markets pale in comparison to bull markets, both in market movement and duration. Peter Mallouk.

The 30-year mortgage rate today seems really high — until you take a bigger picture view. Peter Mallouk: historical context on rates.

Brent crude back below $100 — Saudis aiming to restart the East-West pipeline. Iran has lost control over the Strait as its economy implodes. The case for oil price spikes is fading. @robin_j_brooks via Daily Chartbook.

Brent call skew is the least bullish since June — hedging against higher prices has fallen sharply. Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook.

90% of the rise in the 10-year US Treasury since August 2020 has occurred in the three-day window around US payroll reports or Fed speeches — this isn't about investors getting nervous about long-term debt, it's about revising their view of short-term rates. CEPR via @nicktimiraos: the most clarifying macro insight of the week.

10-year term premium has declined significantly while yields stay near recent highs — suggesting less uncertainty in government bonds but a still-firm economic growth outlook. 22V Research via Daily Chartbook.

Goldman's Social Media Sentiment Index has fallen sharply — near March lows and the Liberation Day nadir. Contra-indicator? Goldman via Daily Chartbook.

S&P within 1% of its all-time high yet fewer than 31% of its stocks are above their 50-day SMA. This has occurred on only two prior trading days since late 2006, both in December 2024. HBR Research via Daily Chartbook.

Russell 2000 YTD outperformance vs. the S&P 500 has been mostly erased. Raymond James via Daily Chartbook.

When the Nasdaq has emerged from a 3- to 12-month consolidation similar to this summer's, the upward trend has historically continued over the next year. Bespoke via Daily Chartbook.

Morgan Stanley's Leading Earnings Indicator implies further upside for S&P 500 earnings growth. Morgan Stanley via Daily Chartbook.

Interesting Reads

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