U.S. Futures & World Markets

US equity futures flat premarket awaiting August PCE data at 8:30 AM ET. The market is pricing roughly a 40% chance of an October rate hike, down from 70% recently, after NY Fed President Williams indicated no urgency for another move.

Market breadth has been weak. Bulls think we may be close to a bottom; bears argue breadth continues to get worse. Both sides have a pretty compelling argument right now — expect more chop until the market picks a side.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: +8.00  |  10-Year Yield: 5.23%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped to 81.9 in September — lowest print since 2014. Big miss. @lizthomasstrat via Daily Chartbook.

Consumers upbeat on equity markets but see fewer jobs over the next six months — sentiment bifurcation between financial markets and the real economy. @renmacllc via Daily Chartbook.

Hormuz oil flow estimate now at ~14.5 MMbpd — the highest since the war began. @rory_johnston via Daily Chartbook.

Systematic strategies still firmly bullish (89th percentile). Discretionary investors more cautious (28th percentile) — leaving plenty of room to add risk. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook.

Monthly performance negative in 8/11 sectors, 53/85 industry groups, and 374 S&P members — while the index itself is barely positive for September. S&P Global via Daily Chartbook.

51.2% of S&P 500 stocks at oversold levels — first time a majority have been oversold since late March. Bespoke via Daily Chartbook.

NYSE 52-week New Lows hit a new high on Sep 28. McClellan calls this a bottoming sign even while SPX is this close to new highs. @mcclellanosc via Daily Chartbook.

BTC up 35% from the August low while coin-denominated open interest is down almost 20% — the rally is less susceptible to leverage flushes. @glassnode via Daily Chartbook.

Bull market yardstick: the average S&P 500 bull market lasts 5.5 years and gains about 180%. If this one matches that historical average, it would eventually put the S&P 500 around 10,000. @dualityresearch via Daily Chartbook.

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