U.S. Futures & World Markets

US equity futures trade slightly higher premarket as the AI trade continues to carry the tape. Micron posted blockbuster earnings — MU is ticking up but not much, with the stock already +270% YTD going in. Google unveiling its latest Gemini AI model.

Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom all higher premarket while most stocks outside technology are flat or lower. Corporate earnings remain strong, but we'll need interest rate volatility to subside a bit to move meaningfully higher. The divergence building between bond market volatility (MOVE) and stock market volatility (VIX) is the most important chart right now. At some point, something has to give.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: +13.00  |  10-Year Yield: 5.32%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

Q2 final sales to private domestic purchasers expanded 4.6% — best since Q1 2023. @kevrgordon via Daily Chartbook.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q3 dropped to 3.7% from 5.0% on Sep 25. Augur Infinity via Daily Chartbook.

JPMorgan's 'TACO barometer' — derived from S&P 500 changes, 10-year yields, and approval ratings — suggests a Trump pivot may be near. JPMorgan via Daily Chartbook.

Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index down 5.01% MTD — on track for its largest monthly decline since 1987. Larry Adam, Raymond James via Daily Chartbook.

The divergence between rate volatility (MOVE) and equity volatility (VIX) is the most important chart today. Something has to give. Daily Chartbook.

Over $1.5 trillion has poured into ETFs this year, surpassing last year's full-year record with a quarter to spare. Goldman via Daily Chartbook.

Five-day net single-stock purchases by Robinhood traders hit a fresh record — last Wednesday's and Monday's selloffs were especially heavily bought. Luke Kawa, Sherwood via Daily Chartbook.

Equal-weight S&P 500 on track for its 7th consecutive weekly decline — the only other time this happened was in the middle of the 2022 bear market. Daily Chartbook.

iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF just registered a power momentum signal with the 6-month rate of change crossing above 20% after being below 0%. Historically these signals reveal strong forward returns. @nautiluscap via Daily Chartbook.

S&P had a +14% Q2 followed by a positive Q3. Q4 has historically been strong in every prior year with a similar setup. @oddstats via Daily Chartbook.

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