U.S. Futures & World Markets

Oil prices and Treasury yields have stocks mixed premarket ahead of CPI inflation data at 8:30 AM ET. Semiconductor stocks remain under fire — closing lower in the last five trading sessions as the market questions the AI trade. ASML reported solid earnings but weaker guidance.

Big Bank earnings continue to pour in. Bank of America is down 4% after missing estimates. Morgan Stanley is +1% premarket after beating numbers. Blackrock is +5% on an earnings beat — they reported $205 billion in quarterly net inflows and ended the period with $15.5 trillion in assets under management. Those numbers are astronomical.

NY Fed Chief John Williams said one more interest-rate increase is appropriate this year, but he doesn't currently see a need to hike in 2027. Let's see what the inflation data brings today.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: +16.00  |  10-Year Yield: 5.20%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

Forecasters anticipate a big rise in energy prices for the September CPI that will drive up headline, but they see a tamer reading for core prices. @nicktimiraos via Daily Chartbook.

The S&P 500's earnings boom is simply unprecedented this late into an economic cycle. Profits are on pace to surge 34% this year followed by another 15% gain expected in 2027 — 54% growth in just 2 years. Charlie Bilello via Daily Chartbook.

The US stock market has never been this fragmented: the 52-week correlation between the equal-weighted S&P 500 and the cap-weighted index is down to 0.67 — its lowest level on record. Before the 2020 pandemic, this figure remained between 0.95 and 0.99 for nearly 15 years. The Kobeissi Letter via Daily Chartbook.

October BofA Global Fund Manager Survey investor sentiment pulled back to the least bullish since June 2026. BofA via Daily Chartbook.

US equity investor risk appetite has revived after sliding in September, led by tech, but expectations of near-term market returns are muted amid concerns over rates, fiscal policy, and geopolitics. Chris Williamson, S&P Global via Daily Chartbook.

FMS investors are net 34% underweight consumer discretionary — biggest underweight since 2008. BofA via Daily Chartbook.

Systematic strategies remain overweight at the 85th percentile. Discretionary investors still cautious, modestly underweight at the 32nd percentile, leaving significant room to add risk. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook.

US pending home sales haven't been this low since 2014, except the pandemic freeze in 2020. Closed home sales also fell in September to their lowest level since end of 2023. Dana Anderson, Redfin via Daily Chartbook.

OPEC has cut its 2026 oil demand growth forecast to just 180,000 bpd, while raising its 2027 projection to 2.55 million bpd. A substantial gap remains between OPEC's outlook and the considerably more bearish assessments from the EIA and IEA. @ole_s_hansen via Daily Chartbook.

Gold prices have held up remarkably in the face of surging yields — striking how bullion has maintained its resistance. John Authers, Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook.

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