U.S. Futures & World Markets

Technology stocks continue to take it on the chin, set to open lower again after yesterday's steep drop. The S&P 500's streak of consecutive days without a 1% decline ended at 53 — the longest since 2020.

Interestingly, tech stocks are lower even as Treasury yields have sharply dropped — the 10-year hit 5.33% yesterday but has since backed off to 5.09%. Normally a move like that would bring dip buyers into tech stocks, but that's not the case. The issue isn't necessarily where rates are, but the volatility in rates. Markets crave certainty, and a jittery bond market has equity investors sitting on their hands.

From Bespoke last night: the 100 best-performing stocks in the Russell 1000 in H1 2026 are down an average of 15.6% in H2. The 100 worst performers in H1 are up an average of 14.6%. In other words, what worked in the first half is not working in the second half, and vice versa.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: -16.00  |  10-Year Yield: 5.09%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

Americans' participation in various social activities has declined by double-digit margins since 1995: entertaining people in your home (-21), attending a place of worship (-20), going on a picnic (-19). Frank Luntz via Daily Chartbook.

Inflation perked up in September, and it was mostly energy. Headline CPI came in at +0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y. Energy alone added about 39 of the 65 bps on the month. On a y/y basis, energy is contributing 1.3 points of that 3.7%. This is an energy story, not a broad reacceleration. Sean David via Daily Chartbook.

The CPI inflation diffusion index — measured similarly to Warsh's preferred PCE diffusion metric — is down. @annaeconomist via Daily Chartbook.

Today's CPI report was the 66th straight month that the year-over-year headline reading was above 2%. Looking at a chart of the S&P 500 during those prior streaks, they weren't terrible times for equities. Bespoke via Daily Chartbook.

Global fund managers identify a disorderly rise in bond yields as the biggest tail risk. BofA via Daily Chartbook.

64% of fund managers think yields won't put serious pressure on stocks until 6%. A majority are confident that 6% yields will never happen in this cycle. BofA via Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook.

Systematic fund equity exposure is back up to the 86th percentile, near highs of the year. Charlie McElligott, Nomura via Daily Chartbook.

Retail net bought $9.1B of US equities last week — the largest weekly net buying in 15 weeks and the ninth-largest week over the past year. Scott Rubner, Citadel via Daily Chartbook.

Currently in peak earnings blackout, with just 24% of S&P 500 weight outside repurchase blackout windows. That figure rises to ~55% by month-end, ~75% by November 3, and ~85% by November 9, as companies report earnings and trading windows reopen. Scott Rubner, Citadel via Daily Chartbook.

Mortgage purchase applications have declined for six consecutive weeks, sliding 11.7% over this period. Existing home sales likely to take another step down in Q4. @renmacllc via Daily Chartbook.

The number of buyers in the market dipped to the lowest level in records dating back to 2013, while the number of sellers rose to its highest level since 2020. Dana Anderson, Redfin via Daily Chartbook.

The average bull cycle gains +192%. We're at +118% today. The next reason to sell is probably already in your inbox, but the average bull gain is still well ahead of us. Matt Cerminaro, Chart Kid Matt via Daily Chartbook.

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