U.S. Futures & World Markets

Markets remain stalled, albeit near all-time highs, as investors await more clarity on US-Iran negotiations and a big slate of mega-cap tech earnings. The tape remains resilient ahead of a busy week of catalysts, and it's no surprise we've seen muted trading action so far. Higher oil isn't helping matters, though.

On the earnings front, Coca-Cola beat estimates (+2.7% premarket), while Corning is lower (-10.7%) after beating numbers but guiding Q2 inline. Spotify is under pressure, down 12.1% on in-line revenue guidance. On Wednesday, the big focus shifts to tech — Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft report, followed by Apple after the close on Thursday.

Roberts & Ryan summed up this rally well: "Coming into today, the Nasdaq is on track for a monthly gain of around 15% while the S&P 500 is up over 9% this month, on track for its second best April since 1950."

"Fed Funds Futures now give majority odds to no rate cuts this year. Incoming Chair Warsh may want lower rates, but it will take time to convince the rest of the FOMC that they are needed. The recent strength of the US economy and a robust Q1 corporate earnings season, both surprising given high oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty, certainly argues for a go-slow approach to rate cuts."

Datatrek Research

For now, markets are holding firm — but with valuations elevated and expectations high, the next move will come down to whether earnings and macro data can keep delivering. It would also help to see oil prices drift lower, rather than push higher.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: -41.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.36%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

Wage growth picking up. Torsten Slok, Apollo: wage growth is beginning to accelerate, particularly among job switchers. This suggests a tightening labor market, likely driven by AI tailwinds, the One Big Beautiful Bill, and the sharp slowdown in immigration.

It's a semiconductor market, and we're just in it. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has put in a parabolic move — both on a one-year and one-month basis. This is what a momentum-driven, sentiment-fueled run looks like up close.

Are semis overextended? @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: "Semiconductors are now at one of the most overbought levels in history. SOX RSI is over 85 and has only occurred in 1995, 2011, and now. Overbought alone isn't a sell signal, but parabolic moves like this tend to get undercut. Chasing such moves has seldom been rewarded."

The oil trade is fading. Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook: USO, the biggest U.S. ETF tracking crude oil, is on pace for its steepest monthly outflow since 2009.

Risk appetite diverging from price. Andrew Thrasher, Thrasher Analytics via Daily Chartbook: "Risk Appetite fell last week, declining by 6 points, diverging from the strength in the S&P 500."

Equity positioning entering modest overweight territory. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: "Consolidated equity positioning has risen to the 53rd percentile, entering modest overweight territory while leaving room for further upside. The backdrop remains constructive." A second Deutsche Bank note adds: "Has the rally been too much? We don't think so."

Mega-cap tech positioning: long, but not stretched. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: "Mega-cap tech positioning is long… but still far from stretched."

Hedge funds puked stocks on the Iran selloff. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: hedge fund de-grossing in U.S. equities was the largest in 7 months as 9 of 11 sectors were net sold, led by Consumer Discretionary (7th straight week of selling). De-grossing in Tech was the largest since July 2024 and the 3rd largest in 5 years.

Corporate buybacks accelerating. Deutsche Bank via Daily Chartbook: "U.S. companies are stepping up share buyback announcements, a sign of balance sheet strength that returns cash to shareholders and helps support stock prices. For investors, that's a constructive signal."

Nasdaq momentum historically bullish. @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: "For the first time in 17 years, the Nasdaq 100 is up 4 consecutive weeks with gains exceeding 18%. This kind of momentum is usually bullish. One month later, the index was higher in 6 of 7 cases, with a median gain of 8.5%."

Textbook sector rotation off the lows. Duality Research via Daily Chartbook: "A textbook recovery seems to be unfolding — where the sectors that should be leading are leading, and the ones that usually lag are lagging. The relative strength picture actually looks even stronger on an equal-weighted basis, with Industrials and Financials also helping drive the move off the lows."

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