U.S. Futures & World Markets

US stocks are ticking slightly higher premarket after both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh record highs. Apple is helping keep the earnings-fueled momentum moving in a positive direction after a solid report, with AAPL +4% premarket.

Away from markets, I came across an interesting article from Jacob Schroeder titled When Wants Become Needs. I initially read it through the lens of financial planning, but it leans more into the bigger picture. This quote stood out:

"A hospice doctor, Jordan Grumet, has written about what people talk about near the end of life. What mattered most was not the accumulation. Not the scoreboard. Not whether every practical decision had been optimized. 'What really mattered is their purpose and identity,' he said. 'And that has everything to do with their experiences, their passions, and the people they surrounded themselves with. It has everything to do with trying to do important things — not whether they succeeded. And this is a really, really big one; whether they succeeded or not is much less important than whether they had the courage to try.' The courage to try."

Jacob Schroeder — When Wants Become Needs

We spend a lot of time thinking about the "future" — saving, investing, and planning. But it's a worthwhile exercise to define your current priorities. The spreadsheet can only tell you so much.

S&P Futures vs. Fair Value: +14.00  |  10-Year Yield: 4.39%

CORE Headlines

Charts & Data

Q2 GDP tracking at 3.7%. Augur Infinity via Daily Chartbook: the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model's initial estimate for Q2 GDP growth is 3.7% — a strong initial read following a solid Q1.

Q1 GDP came in at 2% real growth. Joseph Politano via Daily Chartbook: "US Real GDP came in at a 2% annualized growth rate in Q1 2026. Consumption and investment increased, government output rose, and the trade deficit increased. Nominal GDP growth (unadjusted for inflation) came in at 5.6% annualized."

Consumer spending holding up. BofA via Daily Chartbook: "Total card ex gas spending growth continues to run at healthy levels despite the shock from the Iran war." A second BofA note adds context: "Higher gas prices have offset nearly half the tax refund stimulus."

Inflation expectations diverging. John Authers, Bloomberg via Daily Chartbook: "While the five-year/five-year forecast — the Fed's favored measure — remains at only 2.25%, shorter-term swap forecasts are surging upward." The Fed watches the long end. Markets are watching the short end. Both matter.

National debt crosses 100% of GDP. Richard Rubin, WSJ via Daily Chartbook: "The U.S. national debt now exceeds 100% of gross domestic product, crossing a once-unthinkable threshold, on the way toward breaking the record set in the wake of World War II."

Sentiment has swung hard. Ned Davis Research via Daily Chartbook: "The S&P 500 bottomed shortly after key sentiment indicators reached extreme pessimism. Since then, sentiment has swung to excessive optimism. That shift suggests near-term gains may be harder to achieve without improved geopolitical news, stronger economic data, or better earnings results."

Systematics re-levering aggressively. Goldman Sachs via Daily Chartbook: "The one-month change in U.S. positioning across major systematic cohorts is the 2nd largest re-levering going back to 2016. Systematics have bought almost $80B of U.S. equities in the past month, and CTAs are now long $44B of U.S. equities."

Earnings blowing past expectations. Duality Research via Daily Chartbook: "Earnings are blowing past expectations by 22.4% — that's insane." This is the engine behind the market's resilience.

Big Tech commits $700B+ to AI capex in 2026. @bluekurtic via Daily Chartbook: "Big tech hyperscalers now plan to spend over $700 billion in 2026 on capex, primarily on AI data centers. Alphabet and Meta raised full-year guidance to $190B and $135B respectively, while Microsoft gave its first estimate at $190B. Amazon stands at $200B."

The important context on that capex number. Bespoke Investment Research via Daily Chartbook: "Despite the gawdy figures, these companies are still financing their capex out of operating cash flow. In aggregate, 70.3% of the massive $434B capex bill over the past 12 months has come from operating cash flow — and that share is expected to rise as high as 88.5% by end of year." This is not debt-financed speculation. It's cash-flow-funded conviction.

AWS in context. Charlie Bilello: Amazon's AWS revenue over the last 12 months ($137 billion) was higher than the annual revenue of 472 companies in the S&P 500.

Interesting Reads

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This content does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, or other professional expert advice. Everything published is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness is not assured. Past performance does not indicate future results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely those of the author as of the date indicated.